my journey ..

kidi_kiut

Have you watched Meteor Garden (taken from hana yori dango, one popular manga in Japan), taiwan version ?? Often, Tau Ming Se in the drama said that "what is the use of apology, if there are police out there??" This character in the movie believes that any conflicts could be settled in police office, if and only if the police system is trustworthy. Whenever the axioma is not fulfilled, ultimately it violates the belief of the citizens to the police system (recalling the WARP and SARP in microeconomics, in chapter 7 Revealed Prefered).

What has been shown in televesion in Indonesia recently (even until last few hours, n will be continued within next days), telling us that the credibility of police organization is in stake. The panick movement of the police by arresting Bibit and Chandra (leaders of Corruption  Eradication Agency), exhibit inconcistency of commitment in eradicating corruption in Indonesia.  Despite the possibility that Bibit and Chandra could be guilty as well, our confidence on police system is declining due to unreasonable decision.  The high level of conspiracy by certain people who seeks for individual advantages creates a bad image for police organization.

This uproar should become the concerns to all of us due to a possibility of a chaos in beuaracracy, between organizations. Such case in point has been displayed by the conflict created simultaneously between Police and Corruption Eradication Agency. Even, the attorney officers have an important part in worsening the beuracracy image. It seems that people have no place to turn to. Afterwards, it would create a bad impact to the economy due to the lack of confidence to public services. Surely, we wont this to happen.

Having a heavy task to generate a right decision is on the hands of our President (and their team). How far our country will go and what would our country be like depends on the decision made. Let's just hope that our president is not part of the consipiracy as been mentioned in the tape. However, it needs extra effort, energy, and time to make everything settled as people expect. It is really a hard job. Thus, we all should support and make a move to have a better future.

Above all, the root of this problem is the mentality. Nothing can compare to worse mentality which creates a hell future. In order to avoid it, we should start by edifying ourselves.

Hehe ... so start from now 3, 2, 1 ! gooo ... woooooooooooooossttttttttt ....

(stress mode on)

*empowering her self for noticing her exam result

vian199

Bismillahirrahmanirrahim

hihihi.. lg gak bs bobo lg, nulis dulu ah.

Ibhroh sebulan lebih mama menginap dirumah ku adalah diriku jd tau perkembangan dunia persinetronan Indonesia :D ternyata, gak berubah dari dulu sama aja, tokoh antagonisnya pintar dan licik, sementara tokoh protagonisnya baik bangets, lemah banget, dan sial bangets. Yah, udah alur cerita gak mendidik, penokohan jg gak mendidik, apa lagi dialoq. Klo kehidupan seperti sinetron dah pasti gak akan ada yang mau jadi orang baik di negara ini. Ya sapa lah yang mau menderita panjang.. normalnya gak ada manusia yang mau menderita. Sejatinya semua manusia di berikan Allah insting untuk menghindari penderitaan.

Heran, dari sekian juta orang penduduk indonesia masak iya cuma pas romadhon bs dpt tontonan yang bagus ?? masak iya orang indonesia nih gak ada yang bs bikin hiburan yang mendidik dan menghibur ?? tp gak heran sih, jumlah yang merasa terhibur dengan dengan tontonan seperti itu jg masih jutaan jg :D so impas lah, ada yg jual ada yang beli

Dah ah, siap2x bobo lg, sebelum pusing mikirin gmn caranya nyulap anak kecil biar mirip dude herlino :p

~Shinta

kidi_kiut

It starts from macroeconomic test, one of the question is about rational expectations from the contractionary monetary policy. At that time, i had this mental block like the previous day when i had microeconomics, a disease that would start ruining my future, and should be cured asap, lol. Therefore, i cant think logically what i should do with the question. Afterwards, when i ended up discussing it with one of my brightest friends in the class, at least i got some hints of what i should answer actually. However, the exam has been over. Now that i can do that learning from mistakes.

Yeah, that's what history always offers. History provides hard lesson for some of us. So is a country. History becomes an important element to make a contingency plan so that unexpected thing could be anticipated. Regarding to my experience in the past (recent past : mid exam), i could actually calculate my ability in facing the exam. Indeed, i could make a strategy, good one, in order to have optimum expectation.

What Lucas proposed in macroeconomics works the same way. However, when he applied it in macroeconomics, there is important assumption that the outcome actually do not differ systematically from the market equilibrium. Of course, minimal error in making prediction is other significant variables so that rational expectations work.

Recalling the problem that i had in macroeconomics, i would say that the focus is the expected price level that the wage setters set. The answer of my friend that i just mentioned is similarly like this. The wage setters would adjust the expected price level so that the nominal wage satisfied the employees. In relation with the contractionary monetary policy, a consequence generated because of the policy should have been calculated by the wage setters, such that the in the medium run, wage setters could have just set the price accordingl to lower level but goes equal with the price level itself. When it turns out that the monetary policy generates a new level price, lower one, but has no influence in other variables such as unemployment, level of output and interest rate, the wage setters should have expected it.

As a conclusion, rational expectations is required before applying strategy. It is not just about learning from the past, but how to make beneficiary from the past into certain calculation that would support rationality itself. Quoting one great mean in the past, Cicero, "History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illumines reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity". In all, history always works for rational expectations, but it depends on how we use it.

ah too bad, i make my exams as a misery history. Hope in the future, rational expectations would help me make better history. Have you make a history today?? a worth one??

kidi_kiut

well, i'm lucky this morning for arriving so early. I already had a plan to drop by at the lab, just to copy the office 2007 that i put on the comp in the lab last time i was in assitance of econometrics, doing stata thing.

Here it seems a class of s3, i suppose. So it's kinda cool. They learn about the basic, like me. For me it is abit exciting since they discuss it actively.

Some notes that i take when i m the lab, while listening to the lesson ...

Classic Assumption :

BLUE : is required for the estimator to be classified good in a model

* linear in parameter

*random sampling

*no perfect collinearity >> linear independency

*zero conditional mean

*homoscedasticity

well, they are doing an exercise based on the data. I'll take a look on them, how they make their opinion. It will be interesting and i will get more lessons on them. yay! i'm so lucky!

ganbatte kudasai in! bismillah

kidi_kiut

misguided monetary mentalities

source : http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/12/opinion/12krugman.html?em

by paul krugman

interesting quote : you should never underestimate the destructive power of bad ideas.

He believes that bad ideas have helped in being survive in economics. Those still remains as a contibutore to the great depression in economics. Of course, I still could not fgure what those destructive bad ideas that he's mentioning in the article. However, later on he explained by quoting Peter Temin about a cause of great depression, which is "a gold standard mentality".  The gold as a standard currency to maintain, which is a scared currency is not the only thing that should be believed. Associated attitudes attributed to great depression, such as an obsessive fear of inflation even in the face of deflation; opposition to easy credit,even if the economy needs it, assertion on creating jobs by the government.  The author mentions about the great depression in 1930s which led government to an inflation and treathening spending, mind the mass unemployment to keep their gold reserves. However, the government reluctant cut rates and create jobs.

Recently, american faces a new version of standard gold mentality which undermine the chances to be in full recovery. I, my self, can not imagine that there is a full recovery in the economy. Everything has changed becuase of the uproar in the economy in general. Recalling history of the economy in the past, full recovery needs a perfect velocity and perfect policy.

First case in point mentioned in the article is the declining value of dollar. Although it is deemed as good news in some point. The declining of dollar as a result of rising confidence after facing a panick attack has been good news for Us exporters from huge trade deficit to a sustainable international position. A sustainable international position is beneficial for developed countries which has lower currency compare to US, but  I dont see it will be a steady sustainable international position when dollar is rising again.

He keeps mention that Wall street Journal saying that if dollar is declining, it would give bad impact on the economy, regarding to the trust of the world. Consequently, FEd should exert on supporting to scale back the economy. This is where he said that probably there are chances that FEd has implemented misguided monetary policy. Especially when Fed plans to have tight money policy applied, including increasing the interest rate, just in order to shape expectations. Although I still dont understant what interest rates play in shaping expectations. I do realize when there is a rising interest rate, it would decrease the investment. Surely, it's not good for the economy. Or probably i just see that an increase in interest rate, it shows that FED has certain confidence in scaling back the economy into recovery, therefore people trusts the govenrment and the economy, and fullly active in the economy. Is it? I dont get the logic ... uh darn!

The author believes that actually FED is not a hurry to rise the interest rate, since the unemployment is still struggling, 9.8 %. The policy could be left over until the unemployment rate reaches 7 %, as the recent inflation rate  are below the Fed's long term target. Although fed people believe the rates would be high anyway although the unemployment rate hasnt started to fall yet. The author believes that this act of FEd, is encouraged by a pressure to be recovered. He keeps stating that the fED should be careful, recalling the great depression. Surely, an era of sluggish growth and high unemployment rate is not expected, especially another Great Depression.

Yeah, another great depression isnt something that we expect. High unemployment make people suffer, especially if it is accompanied by decreasing steeply growth. Let's hope that this prediction of misguided monetary mentality is just a point of view, not a reality, because it gives impact globally.

kidi_kiut

the triumph of the monthly bill

source : the economist.com

the author mainly states that subscriptions from the customers have succoured media firms during recession. after the collapse of Lehman Bothers in September 2008, big american companies have outperfomed in the market since march. Media products in sales and advertising shows no  better sign in the recovery. Only cable and sattelite television that remain in the market, could survive from the recession. Such case in point shows by Deriscovery COmmunications, that generates its income from cable. Recalling the past experience, big media groups have depended largely on the field.

The interesting part is when the author relates the carriage fees have attributed to outpaced inflation, that counterbalance the weakness in advertising.

The firms realize how subscriptions play an important role in raising the revenue. They began to charge other products subscribed by the customers. The author believes that subscription at the moment becomes  a king. New strategy applied to make people subscribe in the media product the firms. Wall Street Journal has been in sale, and will begin charging for the newspaper's smart-phone applications. However, the author believes that the best model in media has its limits. Suppose music streaming service created to wean customers from illegal file sharing websites. However, if this is considered to be a competitor for CD and digital downloads, the music-streaming sites would be in trouble.

In recession, it is possible that the firms would face strains because people do not hvae money for entertainment. It is stated that TV online is as a threat for this media group as people will tend to stop subscribing on cabble TV. However he envisage any system that will restrict access to some online content.

Above all, subscription is still a king. Quoting Anders Baluenfeldt, even when we have to cannibalise yourself, it is still important than to lose your customers.

Notes : I'm just summarizing it, not even make any comment on it. Damn! I should work hard on this!!! I should make improvement! Well, though I got some new words that amazed me "oh, this words in english exist?? how come i didnt know?? lol" (trying to fool my self)